Democracy's "Island of Contentment"

The 2020 version of the Global Satisfaction with Democracy report, issued annually by the University of Cambridge, concludes that “democracy is in a state of deep malaise.” The researchers found that since they began their work in 1995, dissatisfaction with democracy has “risen over time, and is reaching an all-time global high, in particular in developed democracies.” This conclusion was as depressing as it was consistent with other studies.

The report did, however, find an “island of contentment,” a select group of countries in which less than a quarter of the public expresses discontent with their political system. In Switzerland, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, for example, satisfaction with democracy is bucking the trend and reaching all-time highs. Austria, Ireland and Luxembourg round out the contented few.

The researchers used “a new data set combining more than 25 data sources, 3,500 country surveys, and 4 million respondents between 1973 and 2020 asking citizens whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with democracy in their countries.” They created four categories to represent the range form dissatisfaction to satisfaction: crisis, malaise, concern and contented. The latter two include countries where at least half the population is satisfied with their democracy. Canada was at least well across that threshold, sitting in the “concern” category, better than the U.S. which sits in the “malaise” group.

What, one wonders, do the chosen few have in common that might lead them to the contented isle. One answer of course is that they are all rich. But that alone is obviously not the answer. All the Anglo nations are rich but none made the cut. The contented countries also have solid social welfare systems and that must surely help. Knowing that your society has your back will no doubt boost your confidence in your governance.

And then there is another commonality that may be an important factor—they all use proportional representation (PR) voting systems. Even among the Anglo nations, the one that uses a PR system (New Zealand) showed the greatest satisfaction. Is it possible that if your government is democratically elected, i.e. election results accurately reflect the will of the people, you have a greater confidence and greater satisfaction with democracy? Now there's a thought.

From Emperors to Emperors and Tsars to Tsars—Plus ça change

The French proverb plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (the more things change, the more they stay the same) most aptly describes what has been happening at the pinnacle of government in China and Russia.

Two years ago, the Chinese Communist Party, completely dominated by its 64-year-old president Xi Jinping, would drop term limits on the presidency. After Mao's lengthy dictatorship, the Party moved away from one-man rule toward a consensus system where power was shared by a handful of high-ranking Party officials. This worked until the ascent of Xi, who was declared "core leader" as state media increasingly sung his praises. He has consolidated power and now with the end of term limits he becomes, in effect, president-for-life. A new emperor.

In China's vast neighbour to the north, we have recently seen similar developments, perhaps inspired by Xi. The Russian parliament is proposing constitutional changes that could leave Vladimir Putin in power until 2036. He is currently required to step down in 2024 when his most recent term ends. If, as is highly likely given his grip on the nation, the constitutional court gives its blessing to the changes and they are backed in an April referendum, he could be president until he's 83, essentially for life. A new tsar.

When the former communist regimes in these two giants came to an end, with the death of Mao in China and the collapse of the Soviet Union under its own dead weight, some of us had great hopes that democracy might root itself in both. Instead it seems as if the tumultuous revolutions that birthed communism, and the carnage and oppression they engendered, ultimately changed nothing. Just passing chapters to be endured. They were ruled by dictators before, they are ruled by dictators now, and they were ruled by dictators in between. Plus ça change.